the future

I used to have a profoundly gloomy outlook on climate change. Full-on multi-year existential crisis. My first thought on waking up in the morning was the death of all life on earth. I would be sitting at a party, thinking about how it was already too late.

A random internet comment changed my mind.

It was in a private group from years ago, so I can't attribute this, or get the wording right. But here's the gist:

We should always assume there will be a future. If there is, and we haven't planned for it, the opportunity cost is too great. If there isn't, we lose nothing by planning anyways.

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In the years since I read that, there have been some impressive innovations in clean energy. We witnessed the rapid overhaul of the world's economy at the beginning of the pandemic. There is a new technology boom based around artificial intelligence (or large language models for now).

The news around climate change seems to be getting worse, but I think that's mostly a result of social sorting. The bad news is written by those with a negative outlook, for those with a negative outlook. Good news doesn't spread and is also difficult to recognize in this field. And the partisan influence means that the sides don't easily communicate with each other.

Intelligent people tend to become snared in philosophical traps of their own creation. If you spend a few hours learning about the carbon deposits trapped in the Arctic permafrost, this could cause you to become a climate doomer. But you could also spend a few hours learning about misaligned AI, or falling birth rates, or global jihadism, and become a doomer trapped in an alternate narrative.

If your friends also believe this narrative, or worse, your paycheck depends on your faith in this narrative, you could be here your entire life.

The alternative is also scary, in a way. It is to admit that we don't know what we don't know. Committing to any narrative, even a self-destructive one, provides the comfort of certainty.

Embracing uncertainty provides a different comfort. The sense that whatever is coming, you can handle it.

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We are here to solve problems. It is our core purpose.

Some problems have no apparent solution, but time reveals new technologies and new paths.

Even if hope is a mistake, fatalism is a distraction.

We don't know enough to be afraid.

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BONUS CONTENT - Here's some miscellaneous advice on how to adapt to the future.

Although it's useful to resist a nihilistic mindset, there is still a lot to gain from communicating with people you disagree with. Every protester has some element of truth in their message. Balancing these influences is tough, but illuminating.

Give less weight to what influential people say, and more to where they invest their time and money.

Practice creativity. By creativity, I mean anything an AI assistant can't replicate.

There are several ways to create a career that is ahead of the technology curve. Maslow's hierarchy of needs is eternal.

Have a good time! The future is your new hangout.